TAMPA - Top economists from Wachovia and Regions banks say there's little doubt Florida has fallen into a recession.

But on a more positive note, Florida continues to attract new residents, which should keep the state's economy from falling too hard this year and lead to some modest growth next year, Mark Vitner, senior economist for Wachovia, wrote in a new report on Florida's economy.

But for some, a return to modest growth may not provide much comfort.

"Even sluggish growth seems like torture when you are accustomed to being one of the fastest growing economies in the nation," Vitner said.

According to Wachovia estimates, Florida's gross state product - or the value of goods and services produced in the state - fell by 1.6 percent in the second quarter of this year. While the figure is based only on Wachovia estimates, it marks the biggest GSP drop since at least 1991, when the economy also fell by 1.6 percent, Vitner said.

The housing market is behind Florida's economic misery. Housing permits for new single-family homes have fallen by 47.4 percent over the past year, and the slumping construction industry has resulted in the loss of 82,200 non-agricultural jobs.

"I consider Florida to be in recession," although it's harder to tell if the United States overall is in recession, Vitner said Wednesday.

Typically, recession is defined as two successive quarters of declining gross state product, or in the case of the country, gross domestic product. However, economists don't determine recessions until after the fact and look at a range of indicators including GDP, employment and manufacturing.

Bob Allsbrook, chief economist for Regions Bank, on Wednesday also said he believes Florida is in a recession. A potential problem is a recent decline in Central Florida's tourism industry, which had been holding up fairly well previously, Allsbrook said.

Resort tax collections in Orange County - where tourism hotbed Orlando is located - fell by 3 percent in June when compared with June 2007, according to a new report from the Orange County Comptroller's Office. The tax is levied on hotel and motel rentals.

Allsbrook watches the resort tax numbers because they are closely tied to discretionary spending. The new Orange County data hint that people are cutting back on vacations, he said.

Looking ahead, Vitner sees some positive signs for the rest of this year and 2009, when gross state product should start growing again.

First, the huge inventory of homes on the market appears to be declining, even if some of the decline is from foreclosure sales and "short sales" - sales in which the home is sold for less than the outstanding balance of the mortgage.

Second, Florida continues to attract new residents, which should pump up the economy. This year, the state is expected to add 180,000 residents and should add 200,000 next year, Vitner wrote in his report on the state's economy.

Helping to attract new residents: Housing prices have fallen back to 2004 levels, Vitner said.

Vitner noted that Florida has experienced real estate-related recessions before, such as the deep recession of the early 1970s.

"As hard as it is for people to believe, real estate is not nearly as overbuilt as it was then," Vitner said Wednesday.

Reporter Michael Sasso can be reached at (813) 259-7865 or msasso@tampatrib.com.