A conceptual rendering of Starkey Ranch.

 

We're accustomed to referencing the "Tampa Bay area" as if it's a single real estate market. It's not. How could it be when it encompasses several counties and millions of people?

That point was driven home this week when two development bigwigs stopped by for a chat. Todd Mansfield is chairman and CEO of Crosland, a big developer based in Charlotte, N.C. Perry Reader is president of Crosland's Florida division.

Mansfield and Reader are jumping big into our market with southwest Pasco County's Starkey Ranch development. It should arrive in a couple of years, bringing thousands of homes, many with traditional touches like front porches. It will be a leave-the-car-at-home type place with stores and offices.

I tried my best to get beneath their veneer of confidence about the Florida market. Surely they were squeamish like everyone else? Haven't they read all the "Florida is Finished" stories? Didn't they know retirees now prefer Black Hole, N.C., over Anywhere, Fla.?

But the pair say desirable projects built on accessible land within easy commuting distance of the cities will thrive. Marginal projects a gas-tank-draining haul from Tampa will not.

"The more desirable areas will move into a scarcity position very quickly," Mansfield said.

Mansfield's point is that well-situated, attractive neighborhoods should rebound strongly and befuddle those market timers waiting for a clear housing price bottom.

Mansfield and Reader are pulling the strings on tens of millions of dollars of real estate investments. They made their name building Disney's Celebration. It's the quaint "new town" development near Orlando derided by social critics as a synthetic Pleasantville but worshiped by its residents.

Are these guys pouring money into a hopeless enterprise? Don't bet on it.

James Thorner can be reached at thorner@sptimes.com or (813) 226-3313.