TAMPA - Three new reports paint a gloomy picture of the Tampa Bay area's housing market and signal more pain may be on the way for home sellers.

Prices are down, sales are down and foreclosures are up.

"If sellers remain stubborn on price, it will delay the recovery in home sales," said Chris Lafakis, an economist who covers Florida for Moody's Economy.com.

The market won't improve until prices come down, and Lafakis said he expects prices to fall 12 to 18 percent more through this next year.

Add that to the 17.5 percent drop, cited for the Tampa metro area in the S&P/ Case-Shiller home price index, released Tuesday.

The report showed that the Tampa area had the sixth-largest year-to-year drop in home sales prices in February among 20 metropolitan areas tracked. The report shows a 3.1 percent decrease from January.

Last month's report, which tracked January's data, ranked Tampa sixth then too, but the yearlong drop that month was less steep at 15 percent.

The five cities with the biggest year-over-year price declines in February were: Las Vegas, 22.8 percent; Miami, 21.7 percent; Phoenix, 20.8; Los Angeles, 19.4 percent; San Diego 19.2 percent.

Meanwhile, another report shows homeowners continue to have trouble paying their mortgages in Florida, where foreclosure filings nearly tripled compared with 2007, according to California-based RealtyTrac, which monitors foreclosure activity nationwide.

Filings were up statewide 17 percent from the previous quarter and 178 percent from the same quarter in 2007, according to the report. With 87,893 foreclosure filings during the first quarter of 2008, that translates to one filing for every 97 households and makes Florida's foreclosure rate the fourth-highest in the nation, the report states.

Locally, the foreclosure rate in the Tampa, St. Petersburg, Clearwater area ranked No. 21 in the top 100 metro areas. There were 11,811 filings, or one in every 110 households, an increase of 9.6 percent from the previous quarter and 127 percent compared with the first quarter of 2007.

Florida had four cities in the top 20: Fort Lauderdale, No. 4; Orlando, No. 13; Miami, No. 14; Sarasota-Bradenton-Venice, No. 15.

Nationwide, foreclosure activity more than doubled nationwide compared with last year, according to RealtyTrac. One in every 194 U.S. households filed in the quarter, up 123 percent from the first quarter of 2007 and an increase of 23 percent over the previous quarter.

Nevada, California and Arizona, respectively, ranked highest among states.

The third report was from Houston-based housing research firm Metrostudy, which tracks new home activity.

Tampa Bay builders started construction on 1,277 single-family starts during the first quarter of 2008, down 43 percent from 2,240 homes during the same quarter last year.

Single-family quarterly closings during the first quarter of 2008 totaled 2,102 units, 47.4 percent lower than last year's first-quarter rate of 3,999 units.

Single-family inventory, which comprises units under construction, finished vacant units and model homes, totaled 6,556 units at the end of the first quarter of 2008. At the current selling rate, it would take 7.7 months to sell those homes, according to Metrostudy's report.

"Tampa has relied on workforce growth for housing demand," Tony Polito, director of Metrostudy's Tampa Bay division, said in a statement. "The problem is ... annual growth was revised to a loss of 17,300 jobs. Job losses cannot translate into job-driven demand for houses.

"That means the demand is driven by retirees, second-home buyers, foreign buyers and current renters."

Even though the reports look gloomy, Lafakis, the economist with Moody's Economy.com., said the bad news is needed.

He said he's calling for sales to bottom out in the next two to three months in the Tampa Bay area, but prices will remain weak through 2009.

"It's bad," he said. "But we just need to take our medicine and start recovering."

Reporter Shannon Behnken can be reached at (813) 259-7804 or

sbehnken@tampatrib.com.