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Overfed housing market needs time to thin
By James Thorner EDITORIAL
St. Petersburg Times
Published: Mar 14, 2008

In the biblical Miracle of the Loaves and Fishes, a nearly empty basket dispenses a never-ending supply of food for a crowd of hungry disciples.

You could adopt the same theme to describe the surplus of homes for sale in the Tampa Bay area. But it's not exactly The Greatest Story Ever Told.

In a given month, roughly 2,000 homes sell across the region, raising hopes that buyers are slowly consuming the glut on the market.

But like during that tilapia and pita bread picnic 2,000 years ago, this particular basket just keeps giving. And giving. And giving.

Take a look at the numbers: In April, active home listings, after rising alarmingly for 1 1/2 years, leveled off at about 42,000.

Since then, more than 25,000 houses and condos have changed hands. Simply subtracting the 25,000 from the 42,000, you'd think only 17,000 homes remained for sale.

You'd be wrong. Combined listings have barely budged in Pinellas, Pasco and Hillsborough counties. Pinellas' listings dipped modestly, but Hillsborough picked up the slack.

The normal churn and burn of real estate means homes are always coming on and off the market. People get job transfers. Others die. Some outgrow their old houses. Others downsize. But our stubbornly high housing inventory points to a cyclical sickness in the market.

So many people are desperate to unload their homes — many of them unwisely bought investment properties — that the supply-and-demand imbalance can't be righted quickly.

And though new-home permits are half of what they were a year earlier, builders haven't idled the cement mixers nearly enough. That means a fresh supply of new houses and condos keeps pouring onto a saturated market.

If that weren't enough, the Amendment 1 property tax reform encouraged people who had held back their properties to try their luck on the listings. Bank sales of foreclosed houses swell the inventory, as do those new Tampa and Clearwater condos abandoned by their cold-footed buyers.

At a certain point, the housing market will burn off its flab. A leaner supply will satisfy a diminished demand. But don't look for such a miracle in 2008.



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