TAMPA - The Tampa Bay area is months away from the bottom of the downturn in the single family housing market, and prices aren't expected to fall further, a well-known Florida economist said Tuesday.

Hank Fishkind's predictions were starkly more optimistic than those of some other economists, who have recently predicted prices won't bottom locally until 2009.

Fishkind's predictions were welcoming words for the roughly 180 real estate lawyers and agents gathered at the Bay Area Real Estate Council meeting at the Centre Club in Tampa.

"This is what the bottom looks like," he said, pointing to a graph charting local sales numbers and average sales prices.

Fishkind compared the current downturn to one that lasted from 1986 to 1991. He said current market conditions in the Bay area mirror the bottom of that down market.

He pointed, specifically, to population growth and housing starts. The Bay area's population growth is down 50 percent, compared with the peak in mid-2006. And housing starts, he said, are down by as much as two-thirds.

Fishkind predicted the market will stabilize then start to improve late this year. A recovery isn't expected until 2009, he said, and the overall economy will remain shaky until then.

But some areas, such as Pasco County, have hit the bottom of the downturn. Hillsborough is within a few months, and Pinellas isn't far behind, Fishkind said.

"I just don't see things falling apart the way some other economists do," Fishkind said after his presentation.

Fishkind tracks average home prices by sales data on deeds recorded in public records. He said he does this so that he can track both new and existing homes sold. He said prices are fairly flat and have dropped only about 5 percent. The average sales price in Hillsborough County in November 2007, he said, was $275,000.

Many economists use median sales prices, which is the point at which half the homes sell for more and half for less. And many use numbers reported by state and national associations of Realtors. By comparison, the Florida Association of Realtors reported a median sales price of $189,100 in November. That was a drop of 15 percent, compared with the same month in 2006.

Chris Lafakis, an economist with Moody's Economy.com, said he agrees with Fishkind that sales and housing starts may improve in the first quarter of this year. But that's where his agreement ends.

Moody's calls for a 27 percent price drop in the Bay area, when measuring from the peak of the market to the bottom. Prices have fallen 12 percent so far, he said, citing data from Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller home price index.

"We're not even halfway there yet," Lafakis said.

Reporter Shannon Behnken can be reached at sbehnken@tampatrib.com or (813) 259-7804.