MIAMI - Radames Villalon fits the profile of an Amendment 1 supporter. He's a loyal Republican and business owner who is disgusted over soaring property tax and insurance bills.

A week from today he will enter the polls -- but to vote against the property tax cut plan.

Conventional wisdom has always been that most voters, given the option of a tax cut, will vote yes.

Also playing in Amendment 1's favor, the thinking goes, is that fewer Democrats will head to the polls next week because of the Democratic presidential candidates' boycott of Florida's primary. That would give more weight to pro-tax-cut Republicans.

But a visit to South Florida, where the outcry over higher property taxes has been the most intense in recent years, gives pause to such assumptions.

One out of four Florida voters live here. And perhaps more than anywhere else in the state, they're engaged in the Amendment 1 debate.

"Everybody I know is going to vote no," Villalon, 55, said last week over a bowl of split pea and ham soup at Versailles, the venerable Cuban restaurant in Miami. "It's not enough."

Property values shot up 175 percent in Miami and 179 percent in West Palm Beach from 2000 to 2006. In the Tampa Bay area, it was 134 percent.

For those not protected by Save Our Homes, a 3 percent annual cap on assessments for homestead property owners, the tax increases could be staggering.

Uncertain support

Gov. Charlie Crist, who went to Miami last week to promote Amendment 1, is banking on the notion that people will not turn down a tax cut.

But many voters seem aware of the plan and its perceived shortcomings.

Unions were drumming up opposition. And organizers of a counter initiative, which would lead to substantially deeper tax cuts, have gathered signature petitions while spreading pessimism over the current proposal on popular radio talk shows.

A poll published Sunday by the Florida Times-Union and South Florida Sun Sentinel showed statewide support for the proposal at 45 percent.

More troubling for Crist, who urged the Legislature to pass the plan and is now its cheerleader in chief: Support was lowest in South Florida, with 41 percent of likely voters approving. The phone poll of 500 likely voters last week had a margin of error of 4.5 percent.

Support among South Florida political leaders is tepid at best, with many of the same lawmakers who voted to send it to voters now keeping quiet.

Rep. Jack Seiler, D-Wilton Manors, said he still plans to vote for it and is urging others to as well.

"I'm not out there touting it as a perfect plan," Seiler said Monday. "But I am telling people it's a step in the right direction."

Alternative tax plan

Amendment 1 calls for increasing the homestead exemption from $25,000 to the equivalent of $40,000; allowing people to carry accrued Save Our Homes benefits when they move. It would also create a new exemption for tax on business equipment and a 10 percent annual assessment cap for nonhomestead property.

That's not enough for many in South Florida, who have hitched their hope for relief to a competing citizens petition pushed by local politician and Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio. The plan would cap property taxes at 1.35 percent of market value.

Volunteers have collected 100,000 signatures, with most coming from South Florida. The group will not come close to putting the measure on the November ballot, but the effort could undermine Amendment 1.

"We can't handle the volume of people who want to sign petitions," Rubio said last week.

The Democrat factor

As Rubio erodes support for Amendment 1 by drawing away those seeking bigger tax cuts, the Democrats are also chipping away.

South Florida, made up of Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties, has 2.7-million registered voters, including 1.2-million Democrats.

Democrats are generally more opposed to the tax cuts because of the lost revenue to schools and local government services. The teachers union and those representing government employees have been waging a grass roots campaign against the amendment.

Union organizers warning of lost jobs spread out Thursday across a courtyard at Jackson Memorial Hospital in Miami.

"The whole region is extremely important, no matter which side of the fence you're on, because this is where the people are," said Florida AFL-CIO secretary treasurer Dwayne Sealy.

Still unknown is how much national politics may keep South Florida Democrats at home next week.

Hillary Rodham Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards signed a pledge not to campaign in Florida because the primary's date violated national party rules.

With no candidates to see and hear, Democratic voters may be less motivated to head to the polls. However, the Florida Democratic Party estimates that twice as many Democrats will cast absentee ballots this year, compared with the 2004 presidential primary.

"The smaller the Democratic vote, the better the outcome for those who support the plan," said Kevin Wagner, a political science professor at Florida Atlantic University in Boca Raton.

But this is no ordinary election. For the first time, a ballot initiative must get 60 percent approval, not the previous simple majority.

"I think it passes easily at 50 percent," Wagner said. "At 60 percent, that's a landslide in politics. Is there landslide support? I haven't seen it."

Times researcher Shirl Kennedy and staff writer James Thorner contributed to this report.