TAMPA - The real estate market is ringing in the New Year on its sourest note yet.

Not since the spring of 2005 have Tampa Bay area home prices been this low. The median sales price of previously owned, single-family homes in the Tampa Bay metro area plunged 15 percent to $189,100 in November, the worst drop among Florida's major metro areas. A year ago, the median was $223,400, according to data released Monday by the Florida Association of Realtors.

The month-over-month snapshot also stung: Prices dropped 9.5 percent from October, when the median sales price was $209,000.

November's median sales price is the lowest since April 2005 and marks the first time it has dipped below $200,000 since mid-2005, when prices surpassed the milestone for the first time in June.

Although it's not surprising that home prices fell in November, real estate experts weren't expecting the cut to be so deep. Some analysts had predicted Bay area prices to fall by as much as 10 percent more, but they had called for the cuts to happen gradually during 2008.

So does this mean the Bay area's real estate market could rebound earlier than previously expected?

Mike Larson of Weiss Research in Jupiter doesn't think so. He still expects prices to drop 10 percent in 2008.

"Tampa is suffering from this real estate boom hangover," he said. "We need even bigger drops to get buyers off the fence."

One bright spot in the numbers was home sales. The metro area of Tampa, St. Petersburg and Clearwater saw 1,644 homes change hands in November. Although that's 30 percent fewer than a year ago, it still leads all other areas in the state.

Statewide, the median sales price slid 10 percent to $215,800. The median is the point at which half the homes sold for less, half for more. The numbers of homes sold statewide slid 30 percent to 8,106.

Miami reported a 4 percent drop in prices. However, in number of sales, the city was last. Only 263 homes sold in November, a 59 percent drop from the same month last year.

The steepest price drop in the state was in Punta Gorda, where prices fell 18 percent to $177,300, from $215,100 in November 2006. There were 154 homes sold, or 29 percent fewer than November 2006.

In Orlando, the metro most similar in size to the Bay area, prices dropped 9 percent to $239,000, compared to $263,600 during the same month last year. There were 1,108 sales in November, a drop of 35 percent year-over-year.

But not everyone is disappointed in the median sales price data.

"I think this is a good thing," said Deborah Farmer, incoming president of the Greater Tampa Association of Realtors. "Now, we'll have more affordable housing."

Farmer said she doesn't expect prices to fall much lower, and thinks 2008 will be a "pivotal year" for area real estate.

"I think we've seen the worst," she said. "I don't see this market dropping another 10 percent. And, someone who's owned a home for three to five years should still do OK."

Reporter Shannon Behnken can be reached at sbehnken@tampatrib.com or (813) 259-7804.