The National Association of Home Builders released a tentatively optimistic report Thursday: New home construction should begin a slow recovery in the summer of 2008.

Unless you live and work in Florida.

In its year-end housing forecast, the Washington-based trade group predicted low interest rates and modest economic growth would encourage a national turnaround in 2008.

But it exempted what it called "overheated markets" like those in Florida, California and Nevada.

Association chief economist David Seiders said the Sunshine State's housing market was so "grossly overheated" that it will require a "long workout period" to stabilize.

"A number of those markets are really not going to show meaningful recovery in 2008," Seiders said of Florida metro areas.

He saved his harshest assessment for the state's condo market. The glut is so bad in the Tampa Bay area, it would take close to three years, at the current sales pace, to clear away the inventory.

The forecasts of the 235,000-member association haven't always met their marks. Seiders admitted 2007 housing starts were 15 percent below what he projected a year ago. He blamed the midyear mortgage crisis, which appeared to clip housing demand just as it appeared to be finding its feet.

Nationally, about 2.1-million vacant homes clutter the market, 700,000 of which are considered to be excess, Seiders said.

Home sales indexes tracking new home construction have fallen to a 22-year low, Seiders said, but showed signs of flattening out since October. New-home builders report fewer cancellations as speculators and dabblers flee the market.

"It's hard to be thrilled when it's still sitting at a record low," Seiders said.

The association based its semipositive projection on a number of assumptions: the nation avoiding a recession; the Federal Reserve dropping interest rates; and the government pressing forward with reform of the mortgage industry.

"The future will be bright once we get over this hurdle," association chief executive Jerry Howard said.

James Thorner can be reached at thorner@sptimes.com or (813) 226-3313.

National housing starts forecast

The National Association of Home Builders predicted that new home construction should start turning around in summer 2008.

2005: 2.07-million

2006: 1.8-million

2007: 1.35-million

2008 (projected): 1.08-million

2009 (projected): 1.18-million