New survey results show uncertainty continued to roil Florida's real estate markets in the third quarter.

"While the outlook for fundamentals has improved,” the survey by the University of Florida's Bergstrom Center for Real Estate Studies says, "there is a tremendous amount of apprehension in the market due to government and economic forces.”

At least part of that uncertainty could be lifted as soon as Tuesday evening, depending on the results of the statewide Amendment 4 referendum. The measure would require further referendums on proposed changes to local government land use plans.

Defeat of the amendment, which is opposed by real estate and business groups, "would go a long way to make people feel better and feel there's not one more thing to compete against,” Tim Becker, director of the Bergstrom Center, said in a Monday afternoon telephone interview.

The amendment requires 60 percent approval to become law. If it passes, Becker said it would create even more uncertainty because local governments are not really sure how to implement the measure, which also could face court challenges.

At the national level, uncertainty remains about what Congress will do about the Bush tax cuts.

In Tampa Bay, Becker said, "the most striking thing is the high unemployment.”

The survey found a combined August unemployment rate of 12.57 percent in Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco and Hernando counties, compared with 11.7 percent statewide.

"That's problematic for Tampa Bay going forward,” Becker said. "We've got to figure out a way to grow jobs.”

Becker said he is not familiar with Hillsborough's transit referendum, which supporters say would create jobs in part by building a light rail system. The local referendum requires only 50 percent approval to implement an extra penny of county sales tax to help pay for the project.

Becker said he is more optimistic about market fundamentals such as rents, occupancy and cap rates.

The survey found that cap rates in the Tampa-St. Petersburg area are, on average, lower than that of the state (0.21 percent), and range from 6.9 percent for apartments to 9.4 percent for flex space and strip centers.

"Cap rate outlooks indicate that rates are expected to remain stable across most property types in the next quarter,” the report says.

A total of 266 professional real estate analysts and investors participated in the third quarter survey, which the Bergstrom Center says is the most extensive survey of Florida real estate professionals conducted on an ongoing basis.