Fourteen Florida banks collapsed in 2009. Among them were First State Bank and Century Bank of Sarasota, Community National Bank in Venice and Flagship National Bank of Bradenton.

A total of 140 U.S. banks went down last year, the most since 1992.

Ken Thomas, who has tracked Florida banking trends for decades, projects at least 200 bank failures this year, with 20 in Florida.

"The financial condition of banks is very much a lagging indicator, meaning that even though we see signs of the economy improving, the bad loans the banks made during the good years, which stopped in mid-'07, are still on the books causing problems,” Thomas said.

A key indicator is the FDIC's confidential list of problem banks, which jumped to 702 at year end, up by 150 in just three months, he said. Based on the number of enforcement actions handed out by regulators, which more than doubled last year, he expects that list will continue to grow.

"I estimate that about 10 percent of those problem banks, about 75, are in Florida,” Thomas said. "With 286 total banks in Florida, down from over 300 last year due to failures and no new banks, this means one of every four banks here is a problem. But only a portion of these will fail, about 20 this year.”

BauerFinancial Inc., the Coral Gables firm that has rated banks since 1983, reported a sharp increase on its own roster of weak banks.

More than 1,000 banks are now on its "troubled and problematic” list, up from 732 one year earlier.

Troubled credit unions also are on the rise. Bauer now has 464 credit unions on its problem list, more than double the 227 from the year before.

Still, 33 percent of the nation's banks and 38 percent of the credit unions earned Bauer's top five-star rating.

Florida reported the fourth-highest number of bank failures from 2007 through 2009, trailing Georgia, Illinois and California. Those four states accounted for 59 percent of the total assets of all failed banks, according to a new study by the Huron Consulting Group.

Florida banks showed higher concentrations of real estate loans, 85 percent here compared with 59 percent for the national average. Florida also saw some of the steepest declines in house prices, said David Moffat, Huron's managing director.

"We believe the excessive price declines in Florida and California, combined with the high concentration of real estate loans in these states, led to the rapid increases in nonperforming loans and subsequently high levels of bank failures,” he said.

The local scene

Bauer rated 48 of Florida's 286 banks at zero stars, its lowest grade. That was up from 43 banks three months earlier and does not include the eight banks that failed in the final quarter.

Horizon Bank of Bradenton and Peninsula Bank of Englewood were again rated at zero. So was Southern Commerce Bank of Tampa, which has branches in Bradenton and Punta Gorda.

LandMark Bank of Florida, based in Sarasota, moved up from zero to one star in the latest report card. So did Cadence Bank, the Starkville, Miss., bank that has offices in Sarasota and Bradenton.

National Bank of Southwest Florida in Port Charlotte bumped up from three to three and a half stars. The bank last week announced its sale to a company headed by a Cleveland entrepreneur.

Seaside National Bank & Trust of Orlando, which has a Sarasota branch, jumped one grade to three stars despite losing $9.5 million. Seaside raised $40 million last year from private-equity firms.

TIB Bank of Naples, which has offices in Venice and Nokomis, fell from two stars to one star. TIB lost nearly $41 million in 2009.

Superior Bank of Birmingham, Ala., dropped from two to one star after posting a $14.2 million loss.

Among credit unions, Achieva lost one star to four stars after absorbing the Sarasota Coastal Credit Union, which was one of the weakest credit unions in the state. Achieva posted a $717,000 loss in the fourth quarter, knocking down its 2009 profit to $532,000.

Tropical Financial Credit Union, which serves employees of Sarasota Memorial Hospital, was downgraded to two stars. The Miramar-based credit union lost $7.2 million last year.

No longer on the Bauer list are Century, Flagship and Orion Bank of Naples, all of which failed in the fourth quarter. Manatee River Community Bank of Palmetto merged into First America Bank, which moved its headquarters from Osprey to Bradenton.

Beating the bushes

Many of Southwest Florida's banks are beating the bushes for fresh capital, but only some are proving successful. Community Bank of Manatee raised $15 million last fall, but had to sell a majority stake to an outside investor group.

"The problem is that there are too many problem banks chasing too few private-capital dollars,” Thomas said.

"Many of these problem banks have little or no hope of getting private capital, thus causing them to fear every Friday night, thinking the FDIC is waiting outside in black SUVs with tinted windows.”

Regulators just gave Horizon Bank 45 days to raise more capital or find a buyer. Peninsula Bank also is under the gun to boost its capital levels.

Community bankers complain that regulators are cracking down too hard on capital levels while pressuring them to boost lending.

"This heightened regulatory scrutiny is making a tough credit situation worse, and this means that the current credit crunch will likely continue even with the Fed funds rate at a record low for an extended period,” Thomas said.

New players in the colony

The spate of bank failures is bringing new players into Florida. Giant Wells Fargo bought Wachovia. JPMorgan Chase grabbed Washington Mutual. BB&T bulked up by buying Colonial. A private investor group took over BankUnited, the largest Florida-based bank, and reopened it under the same name.

This has further cemented Florida's reputation as a banking colony, where nine of the 10 largest banks are owned by out-of-state interests.

"This time many of our banks, including some of our largest, are being bought not only by big banks from other states but direct private equity and other big money interests from Wall Street,” Thomas said.

"I am most concerned, though, with those among the latter who only care about a return to their Wall Street investors rather than to the community, which is essentially the difference between those that may be called ‘carpetbagger bankers' rather than community bankers,” he said.