TAMPA - Fewer homes are selling in the Tampa Bay area than in any other major metro area in Florida.

The Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater area suffered the biggest slump, with a 40 percent drop in the number of single-family existing homes sold in the fourth quarter of 2006, according to The Florida Association of Realtors. The group said 7,039 homes sold during the quarter, compared with 11,653 in the same quarter a year ago.

This follows year-end numbers released in January that showed a 35 percent drop in total sales to 34,322 from 53,183 in 2005.

"Builders were drastically optimistic in Tampa," said Per Gunnar Berglund, senior economist with Moody's Economy.com. "I've looked for a reason for this, but it's hard to pinpoint."

Part of the reason could be the Bay area's employment drop, he said. Berglund said December's employment numbers were 5 percent lower than in spring 2005.

"For some reason, in Tampa, that has really hurt consumer confidence," he said.

The Fort Lauderdale and Miami areas, known for the high number of speculators during the five-year real estate boom, are holding up better than the Bay area, at least when it comes to single-family home sales.

Fort Lauderdale saw a 10 percent drop in the number of sales, and Miami had a 3 percent drop. Median sales prices dropped 4 percent and 1 percent, respectively. Bay area prices, however, held steady with a median sales price of $223,900, a 2 percent increase from the fourth quarter of 2005.

In nearly every market across Florida, the condo market was gloomy.

Daytona Beach was hardest hit in sales volume, with a 67 percent drop. Prices fell 11 percent. The Naples market followed with a 49 percent decrease in sales and a 12 percent drop in prices.

In major cities, developers have been planning dozens of downtown high-rise towers.

Condo sales in the Bay area mirrored its single-family market with a 40 percent decrease; prices dropped 9 percent to $169,100. The number of condo sales in Fort Lauderdale and Miami fell 30 percent and 28 percent, respectively.

The question in the minds of many buyers and sellers is when the housing market will bottom out and start to rebound.

Economists at the National Association of Realtors say the worst might be over, and spring figures are likely to improve.

Some economists, however, such as Berglund with Moody, say that's optimistic.

"I do think it will get more stable in the second half of 2007," he said. "But I don't think we'll see real signs of recovery until 2008."

Nationally, sales declined 10 percent in the fourth quarter of 2006 compared with the same period a year ago. Realtors said that although sales declined in 40 states, six states showed increases, and Utah had an unchanged sales pace.

The median home price in the fourth quarter was down 2.7 percent from a year earlier to $219,300. Prices began falling in many areas last year after the boom pushed prices up at double-digit annual rates.

In the latest quarter, the median price declined in 73 metro areas, increased in 71 and was flat in five. The biggest decrease was in the Sarasota-Bradenton-Venice area, down 18 percent from a year before.

Information from Dow Jones Newswires was used in this report. Reporter Shannon Behnken can be reached at (813) 259-7804 or sbehnken@tampatrib .com.