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Pending home sales drop sharply
By ALAN ZIBEL
Tampa Tribune
Published: Jan 6, 2010

WASHINGTON - The number of people in November preparing to buy a home fell sharply from October - the latest sign that the housing market, which appeared to be stabilizing, is headed for a "double-dip" downturn.

The National Association of Realtors said its seasonally adjusted index of sales agreements fell 16 percent from October to a November reading of 96. It was the first decline after nine straight months of gains and the lowest reading since June.

Tuesday's report indicates consumers are taking their time after the extension of a tax credit deadline, and that is draining momentum from the summer's recovery. The incentive of up to $8,000 for first-time buyers was to expire at the end of November. But Congress pushed back the date and broadened the program with a new credit of up to $6,500 for buyers who relocate.

There appears to be little risk that a reversal in housing will pull the economy back into recession. Orders to U.S. factories posted a big gain in November, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. That was the latest evidence of a strong turnaround in manufacturing as industries from China to Europe flash recovery signs.

Taken together, the reports show that while housing remains vulnerable, makers of steel, computers and chemicals are mounting a surprisingly robust rebound.

"We expect housing to just limp along even as the rest of the economy is growing fairly strongly," Nomura Securities economist Zach Pandl said.

"It will be at least early spring before we see notable gains in sales activity as homebuyers respond to the recently extended and expanded tax credit," Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, says in a written statement.

Typically, there is a one- to two-month lag between a contract and a done deal, so the index is a barometer of future sales. Pending sales were down 26 percent from October in the Northeast and Midwest, 15 percent in the South and 3 percent in the West.



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