TAMPA - The next shoe may be dropping in the real estate market, even as lenders fight for a soft landing.

Rents, occupancy rates and values for commercial projects have plummeted - particularly in the Tampa Bay area - and defaults are on the rise, according to New York-based Real Capital Analytics.

"There was a lot of overbuilding in Tampa during the housing boom, and that contributed to (commercial) overbuilding," said Ben Thypin, senior market analyst for Real Capital. "It drove prices up to an unsustainable level."

Even taking back the properties is not helping lenders recoup losses.

Tampa is among cities with the lowest recovery rates, meaning lenders are eating bigger losses when they sell foreclosed properties.The Tampa metro area's recovery rate so far this year has been about 46 percent, according to the report. Only Detroit fared worse, with a recovery rate of about 45 percent.

The report looked at 145 defaulted commercial mortgages nationwide with an outstanding balance of $3.2 billion that were liquidated this year. Lenders recovered $1.9 billion before costs and fees for a nationwide recovery rate of 60 percent.

The situation could be worse than it seems, the report says, because many lenders know the recovery rate will be low if they foreclose.

At least $130 billion in commercial mortgages nationwide are in default foreclosure or bankruptcy, according to Real Capital.

This year, lenders have taken back and sold mortgages totaling $9.5 billion. The majority of troubled loans, however, are in limbo. Some of those loans have been extended or modified, and only time will tell whether they end up back in foreclosure.

Commercial properties bought during the real estate boom were financed 70 percent to 80 percent. Now that property values have dropped, owners have a difficult time refinancing.

Lenders now typically allow only 50 percent to 60 percent of the value to be leveraged.

The Tampa Bay area's office sector was set to have $132 million in loans due this year, California-based First American CoreLogic said in late July.

An additional $204 million in industrial loans were expected to mature this year.

The bulk of loans are due next year, Thypin said. If the credit market is not improved, it will be difficult for owners to refinance.

"I don't think we've seen how bad this could get," Thypin said.

Reporter Shannon Behnken can be reached at (813) 259-7804.