At the risk of abusing a NASA analogy, the Tampa Bay housing market is yo-yoing between the lift of economic stimulus and the drag of a turbulent business environment. Let's weigh the countervailing forces:

Lift: National new home sales showed signs of life in July. As one news commentator put it this week, the one-month rise was a "whopping" 9.6 percent.

Drag: As of June 30, Tampa Bay new home sales are down a "wilting" 39 percent from last year's already lousy levels. Signs of life? More like a pinky twitch.

Lift: The federal government's $8,000 new home buyer tax credit makes mortgage financing more affordable. And the Federal Reserve's loose money policy has forced mortgage rates below 5.5 percent.

Drag: Mortgages are cheap, but try getting skinflint banks to approve your loan or appraisers to value your house correctly without comparing it to cut-rate foreclosure cases. It's as if they invited you to the warm lobster buffet and then ushered you into the cold sardine line.

Lift: Foreclosures have made home buying affordable for thousands of Tampa Bay residents priced out of the turbo-charged housing market of 2005-06.

Drag: Foreclosures are laying waste to entire neighborhoods, turning them into multifamily rental communities and smothering property values.

Lift: The government is spending hundreds of billions of dollars to keep the financial system sound. Taxpayers won't have to cover the bill for years.

Drag: The government is spending hundreds of billions of dollars to keep the financial system sound. Taxpayers won't have to cover the bill for years.

Lift: Bargain condominiums have helped make city living attractive in places like Tampa's Channel District, downtown St. Petersburg and the Clearwater waterfront.

Drag: The condos are bargain-priced only because many of the developers are more deeply underwater than their building pilings.

Lift: After skydiving without a parachute for nearly three years, Tampa Bay home prices have steadied since February. New home buyers have less to fear from continuing depreciation.

Drag: A rough consensus of Florida economists believes that home prices, after kissing terra firma, will need about two years to rise off the ground again.

After calibrating the lifts and drags, it's easy to conclude that real estate could clear the cloud layers, but probably won't exceed suborbital.

James Thorner can be reached at jthorner@sptimes.com or (813) 226-3313.