TAMPA - This may be the year of reckoning for the commercial real estate market: Nearly $165 billion in loans nationwide will mature and must be sold or refinanced, according to California-based First American CoreLogic.

This comes as rents and occupancy rates - especially in the Tampa Bay area - have plummeted.

For office and industrial sectors, Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater ranks fourth among metro areas for debt due this year, according to a CoreLogic report.

The area's office sector has $132 million in loans due this year. An additional $204 million in industrial loans will mature, too, the report states.

That's partly because so many commercial properties were built or refinanced during the housing boom, and equity has dwindled.

It's bad timing for the area's economy.

Economists fear the commercial real estate market will be the next shoe to drop in the recession and that the ripple effect could make the housing collapse pale in comparison.

Florida has the nation's fourth-highest rate of home foreclosures.

Similar problems in the commercial real estate market could slow a rebound in the economy. The commercial market, valued at $6.7 trillion nationally, is expected to see half its loans come due during the next three years.

The South has the largest number of maturing loans, with 60,893 mortgages valued at $96 billion coming due on offices, hotels, apartment buildings, shops and land.

The West is second. It has 20,549 mortgages maturing with a value of $35 billion.

As these loans get closer to coming due, landlords worry they will be unable to hang on to their properties.

Credit is tight, property value continues to fall, and lenders might be unwilling to refinance projects. Owners also are dealing with tenants who are having trouble paying rent or are closing their businesses.

A separate report, released Wednesday by Real Capital Analytics, states that office, industrial, apartment and retail properties acquired or refinanced since early 2004 have lost value.

Many of these properties were leveraged 70 percent to 80 percent. Those owners would have a difficult time refinancing because lenders now typically allow only 50 percent to 60 percent of the value to be leveraged.

Reporter Shannon Behnken can be reached at (813) 259-7804.