It's not time to break out party horns and confetti yet. But the worst could be over soon for struggling hotel operators in the Tampa Bay area and nationwide.

The decline in room demand was greatest in the first quarter of 2009, according to a report this week by the research division of PKF Consulting Corp., a national hotel advisory firm.

Hotel room sales will continue to show year-to-year declines, the forecast said, and the numbers won't turn from red to black for most hotels until the second half of next year.

"The bad news is that 2009 will be the weakest year on record for the domestic lodging industry, and 2010 will be disappointing, as well," the report said. "However, if you want to know when the operating environment is going to get a little less painful, that's happening right now."

The Tampa Bay area falls in the middle of the pack among 50 major U.S. hotel markets, said Charlotte Kang, a PKF vice president who studies Florida and the Southeast.

PKF forecasts that revenue per available room - a key metric for the industry - will be down 16.6 percent for the Tampa Bay area for this quarter, she said. It should drop at half that rate for the third quarter. The number should turn positive by next summer, Kang said, and grow by 8 percent in 2011 and nearly 13 percent in 2012.

Pinellas County last week reported 1.94 million visitors for the first four months of 2009, down 137,000 people, or 6.6 percent, from a year earlier.

County tourism director D.T. Minich says hotel operators report that summer business looks fairly strong.

"They're filling up on weekends at the beaches," he said. "The Fourth of July looks good. It's better than expected - not that the expectations were that great."

Steve Huettel can be reached at huettel@sptimes.com or (813) 226-3384.